BTCUSD price could be due for either a bounce or a break of the channel resistance, depending how the top-tier catalysts today turn out. Price has been slowly trending lower on the short-term time frames, with a descending channel connecting the latest highs and lows of price action since last week.
Price is currently testing the top of the channel which lines up with the 100 SMA dynamic resistance. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, which suggests that the path of least resistance is to the downside. A break below the sideways pattern just above $372 could indicate a pickup in bearish momentum and a possible selloff to the channel support at $368.
An upside break past the channel resistance around $374 could be enough to confirm that an uptrend is forming. BTCUSD price could still encounter a bit of resistance at the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point before heading further north. Stochastic is on the move up so bitcoin price might follow suit and RSI is on middle ground on its way higher as well.
Last week, FOMC officials have given mostly downbeat remarks focusing on weaker inflation trends and the negative impact of dollar strength, dousing hopes of another tightening move before the end of this quarter and allowing BTCUSD price to advance against USD.
Traders are waiting for Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen’s testimony today, as this might contain clues on when the Fed’s next rate hike might be. If Yellen decides to highlight the strength of the US economy and brush off the latest bout in financial market volatility, the US dollar could advance against other currencies and cryptocurrencies. This could spur a bounce off the short-term channel resistance and even a break of the support onto new lows closer to $350.
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