BTCUSD is still cruising sideways and waiting for a clearer direction from market catalysts. Although the BOC and RBNZ have already announced their policy decision, these weren’t enough to result in a shift in market sentiment. Traders are now waiting for the ECB statement.
The ECB is widely expected to announce an expansion of their quantitative easing program and another cut in deposit rates, which might actually be welcomed positively by European equity markets. This could lead to a pickup in risk sentiment towards the end of the session, boosting BTCUSD.
However, price could still find resistance at the top of the channel, which coincides with the 61.8% Fib and 200 SMA. This is also in line with an area of interest or former support at $420.
Stochastic is pointing down, suggesting that a downside breakout might occur from the current consolidation. In that case, BTCUSD could resume its slide to the channel support at $380 near the previous lows. After all, the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
RSI is also heading down after barely making it to the overbought zone, suggesting that bearish pressure could build up and keep the current resistance level holding. Stronger bearish momentum might even mean a break below the channel support and a drop to the next floor at $350 then at $300.
On the other hand, a strong upside break past the channel resistance could lead to a test of the nearby ceiling at $450 then at $465. Other event risks include speculations about crude oil production caps leading up to the OPEC meeting later on this month.
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