BTCUSD formed lower highs and higher lows on the daily time frame, creating a symmetrical triangle pattern on the longer-term chart. Price bounced off the triangle support in March and April and might be ready to test the resistance once more.
BTCUSD is moving close to the top of the triangle at the $425 level, which might keep gains in check. After all, stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions so buyers might need to take a break and let sellers take over. However, RSI is still on the move up so there may be some bullish momentum left for an actual test of resistance.
The 100 SMA is still above the 200 SMA for now so the path of least resistance is to the upside, keeping the possibility of an upside triangle breakout on the table. However, the moving averages are edging closer to each other so a downward crossover might be imminent.
Data from the US economy has been mostly weaker than expected this week, as retail sales, PPI and CPI figures fell short of consensus. Earnings figures have also been mixed, even as analysts have already set the bar low for company reports in Q1.
A lot still hinges on the outcome of the Chinese top-tier reports today and the upcoming Doha meetings over the weekend, as these could set the tone for commodity prices, global inflation, and overall market sentiment. Market watchers are doubtful that an oil output freeze deal would be reached, especially since prices have already rebounded, so the higher-yielding bitcoin might return its recent gains soon.
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