BTCUSD is still stuck in tight consolidation for more than a couple of weeks already, indicating a lot of hesitation ahead of this week’s FOMC statement. Zooming out to the longer-term time frames shows that the ascending channel is still intact so there’s a chance that the uptrend could stay intact.
A sharp downside break off the consolidation support around $600 could lead to a test of the channel support around $580-590. On the other hand, a move past the consolidation resistance at $610 could lead to a rally up to $640-650.
The moving averages are oscillating to reflect range-bound market conditions, barely providing any clues on where BTCUSD could be headed next. However, the 100 SMA seems to be making an upward crossover at this point, suggesting a possible bullish breakout.
Also, RSI is on the move up to show that buyers are in control of BTCUSD price action for now. Stochastic is also heading north but is already closing in on the overbought zone to show that buyers might need to take a break soon and let sellers take over.
All these technicals could be eclipsed by the FOMC statement, though, as any major changes in bias or actual policy could lead to long-term dollar moves. A number of voting members seem to be shifting to a more hawkish stance as most of the economic reports have shown consistent improvements, but many are also wary that these green shoots might not be enough to warrant an actual rate hike for now.
In that case, dollar traders could turn their attention to the economic forecasts as upgrades in growth and inflation estimates could keep the door open for a December hike. In that case, USD could still advance across the board, albeit at a slower pace.
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