BTCUSD price is slowly treading higher, moving inside a rising channel on its 1-hour time frame. Price is nearing the channel resistance at $425 and might be due for a selloff soon.
If you’re looking to follow the uptrend, better wait for a test of the channel support around $417.50, as this lines up with the dynamic inflection points near the moving averages. Speaking of moving averages, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside and the rally could resume.
However, stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions so a return in bearish pressure could take place. Still, the oscillator hasn’t crossed lower yet so buyers are in control for now. Meanwhile, RSI is heading lower but treading sideways so consolidation might take place.
The FOMC minutes release could serve as a huge catalyst for volatility, as hawkish remarks and a bias for a rate hike before the second half of the year could mean more support for the dollar. This could also usher in risk aversion, weighing on the higher-yielding bitcoin.
On the other hand, cautious remarks similar to that of Fed Chairperson Yellen could drag the dollar lower and boost riskier assets. This could lead to more gains in BTCUSD price, possibly even triggering a break past the channel resistance and stronger rallies for bitcoin.
Zooming out to the 4-hour time frame also shows an ascending channel with bitcoin trading close to the mid-channel area of interest and potential resistance. A move past this area could take it up to the longer-term resistance at $450 while a break below the 1-hour channel support could lead to drop near $410.
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