BTCUSD turned upon hitting a strong ceiling at the $460 area, setting its sights back on the areas of interest at $420 and $440. A bearish divergence formed as stochastic and RSI made lower highs while price had higher highs.
Stochastic has room to go lower so sellers could stay in control for a while, likely pushing BTCUSD back to the $420 lows or much lower to $380-400. RSI, on the other hand, is nearing the oversold region so profit-taking might be possible.
Meanwhile, the 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the uptrend could still resume at some point. If so, BTCUSD could make another test of the major resistance or perhaps go for a break higher, depending on how strong bullish pressure becomes.
The FOMC decided to keep monetary policy unchanged as expected but sounded less upbeat in their latest statement. Even though policymakers removed the reference to global financial risks, they downgraded their assessment of growth and inflation. They also removed the phrase on the balance of risks, hinting that they might not be ready to hike again in June.
Today the US advanced GDP reading is up for release and a 0.7% growth figure is expected. This would be much weaker compared to the previous quarter’s 1.4% expansion. A lower than expected result could reinforce the Fed’s cautious outlook, possibly leading to more dollar declines and a rally in BTCUSD.
Risk appetite still seems to be in play, although the dovishness of other central banks such as the RBNZ appears to be keeping higher-yielding gains in check. In addition, Australia printed a negative quarterly inflation reading so traders are hesitant to buy up risky assets for now.
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