BTCUSD has formed lower highs and found support at $585, creating a symmetrical triangle on its short-term time frames. Since this comes after a strong rally, though, it could be considered a continuation flag signal, pending an upside breakout.
The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA on this time frame, confirming that further gains are possible. However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing so a downward crossover could take place, letting sellers take the upper hand. If so, BTCUSD could drop towards the next visible support at $562.50.
Both RSI and stochastic are on middle ground, barely offering strong directional clues. It’s worth noting, however, that stochastic and RSI appear to be on their way lower, reflecting a bit of bearish pressure. On the other hand, an upside breakout could lead to a test of the triangle top near $600.
There’s not much in the way of US economic data these days, although traders seem to be booking profits after the upbeat NFP release. Other jobs indicators haven’t indicated as much upside pressure on hiring or wages, downplaying hopes of a Fed rate hike for September.
The US is set to print its retail sales figures on Friday and strong data could spur more gains for the dollar against bitcoin. Weak data, on the other hand, could lead to an upside breakout for BTCUSD. Analysts are expecting a 0.4% increase in headline retail sales and a 0.2% gain in core retail sales, slower than the gains posted in the previous month.
As for bitcoin, the selloff from the Hong Kong Bitfinex hack seems to have boiled over and traders are still booking profits off their short positions. Investors may also be reestablishing their long biases as central banks are adopting an easy money policy, leading them to seek higher returns elsewhere.