BTCUSD has been consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle pattern on its 4-hour chart for quite some time now, forming lower highs and higher lows. Price bounced off support and might be due to test resistance again.
The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA so there’s a chance for a downside break. However, these moving averages are oscillating so the consolidation could simply carry on. RSI is pointing up to show that buyers are gaining ground while stochastic is also heading north so BTCUSD might follow suit.
In that case, price could head up to the triangle resistance at $430 for a quick test and an upside breakout could mark the start of a longer-term climb. On the other hand, if sellers take control and push for a break below support at $400, a downtrend could ensue.
The upcoming NFP release could serve as a major catalyst for a breakout, as strong data could reinforce dollar demand despite the FOMC’s cautious stance while weak data could lead to a dollar selloff.
The ADP report printed a slightly stronger than expected read of 200K versus the 195K estimate, although the previous reading was downgraded to suggest that negative revisions might also be seen for the actual NFP.
Also due this week is the Chinese PMI readings and upbeat results could usher in risk appetite. In that case, the higher-yielding bitcoin could benefit from a return in risk-taking while a risk-off environment could spur a downside break.
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