BTCUSD is due for yet another breakout, and the technical indicators suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, which suggests that the downtrend could carry on. RSI is on middle ground, though, so buyers and sellers might still be undecided.
Meanwhile, stochastic is on the move up but is nearing the overbought region. Once the oscillator turns down from that area, bearish momentum could pick up and pave the way for a downside break.
If that occurs, BTCUSD could fall to the bottom of the triangle around $350. Stronger selling pressure could take it down to the next long-term area of interest at $300. On the other hand, an upside break could bring bitcoin price to the top of the triangle around $420, with stronger bullish pressure lifting it all the way up to the longer-term resistance at $465.
Upcoming market events include the RBA statement and BOE statement, both of which might sound more dovish than usual. This could be enough to bring risk-off moves back on the table, as central banks have been acknowledging the external threats from China and falling oil prices.
Factors that could also affect sentiment include a potential OPEC meeting to discuss a cut in production, which might then revive risk-taking and allow higher-yielding assets like bitcoin price to advance.
Long candles closing above the resistance at $380 or below the triangle support at $370 could be enough to confirm a directional breakout, although a surge in volatility could make bitcoin price prone to a fake out during top-tier market events, which also include the US non-farm payrolls report due on Friday.