BTCUSD appears to have hit strong resistance around $775 and is showing signs of a correction. Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 61.8% level lines up with a rising trend line visible on the daily time frame.
The trend line also coincides with a former resistance level around $460, which might hold as support. It also lines up with the 100 SMA, which could hold as dynamic support. This short-term moving average is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside.
However, the gap between the moving averages is pretty narrow so a downward crossover could take place, drawing more sellers to the game. In addition, RSI is pointing down so BTCUSD might head south while stochastic appears to be making its way out of the overbought region as well.
Since the EU referendum is fast-approaching, traders might be starting to book profits off their recent long positions. This could take the correction at least until the 38.2% Fib or $650, which lines up with an area of interest visible on short-term time frames. Watch out for reversal candlesticks or for oscillators to indicate oversold conditions before going long.
The actual Brexit vote could spur a lot of volatility for BTCUSD while traders try to predict the results. The polls are open 6:00 am GMT to 9:00 pm GMT and the official results are scheduled to be announced around 1:00 am GMT on June 24, depending on how close the vote is.
If a Brexit is made, BTCUSD could be poised for more gains as traders move their funds out of European assets onto virtual currencies. Increased uncertainty in the global market could also lead traders away from equities and fiat currencies onto alternative investments. On the other hand, a vote to remain in the EU could spur a sharp selloff for BTCUSD.