BTCUSD has been rallying lately but it is still inside the symmetrical triangle visible on its longer-term time frames. Price is currently testing the top of the formation around $435 and might be due for an upside break.
The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. A move past the top of the triangle could lead to a rally until $465 or the previous year highs at $500. However, if the resistance continues to keep gains in check, BTCUSD could head back to the triangle support at $380.
Stochastic is pointing down after just making its way out of the overbought area, indicating that sellers are taking control of BTCUSD action. Also RSI is heading south so price might follow suit.
Data from the US economy came in stronger than expected yesterday, which explains why the dollar is staying supported despite the pickup in risk appetite. BTCUSD typically rallies during these times but price might need a stronger catalyst for prolonged gains.
For today, the ADP non-farm employment change is due and this is considered a leading indicator for the NFP due on Friday. Strong data could revive hopes of a Fed rate hike for March, adding to the dollar’s gains. On the other hand, downbeat results could spur losses for the dollar and push BTCUSD past the triangle resistance.
Also due today is the US crude oil inventories report which should provide more insight as to whether the market is in a supply glut or not. Leaders of oil-producing nations still haven’t come up with an agreement to cap production, which is why crude oil has been on a slow climb.
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