BTCUSD has recently broken below a symmetrical triangle on the 1-hour time frame, signaling that a downtrend is in order. Price found support at $435 then pulled up to the 61.8% Fib based on the latest swing high and low on the 1-hour chart.
The highest Fib appears to be holding as resistance for now, as it lines up with the descending trend line or top of the previous triangle pattern. It is also near the 200 SMA, although an upward crossover appears to be looming and indicative of a return in buying pressure.
Stochastic is heading lower so sellers are still in control of price action. RSI is also moving south so BTCUSD could follow suit and move back to the previous lows or much lower. A break past the current levels or the $450 mark, on the other hand, could put BTCUSD on an uptrend.
Event risks for this setup today include the release of US durable goods orders data, which might show 0.3% gains for the headline and core figures. Stronger than expected results could revive dollar demand, as this would remind traders that some Fed officials are still considering hiking interest rates in June.
Weak data, on the other hand, could mean more dollar weakness and perhaps an upside breakout for BTCUSD. In that case, price could make its way up to the next resistance at the $470 level. Other event risks for the rest of the week include the US preliminary GDP reading, which could see an upgrade from 0.5% to 0.8%, and Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen’s testimony.
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