BTCUSD appears to be having trouble heading further north since it is encountering resistance at the Fib levels, moving averages, and former support area. If these continue to hold as a ceiling, price could eventually head back to the previous lows around $407-408.
The 100 SMA is starting to cross below the 200 SMA to signal that further losses are likely. Stochastic is also heading down so price might follow suit while RSI is moving sideways.
A break above the moving averages could lead to a test of the 61.8% Fib at $420 or a move to the previous highs. This hinges on the outcome of today’s market catalysts.
For today, the NFP release during the US trading session could spur a lot of volatility. Analysts are expecting to see a 206K gain in hiring for March, lower than the previous month’s 242K increase. Still, revisions to earlier data could have a strong say on where the dollar might be headed.
Mostly stronger than expected readings could provide support for the dollar, leading to a decline in BTCUSD, as this would remind market participants that the Fed could hike rates later this year. On the other hand, downbeat results could lead to a dollar selloff and a corresponding BTCUSD rally.
Earlier today, Chinese PMI readings came in mostly stronger than expected but failed to boost risk appetite significantly. However, should risk-taking strengthen later on in the day, BTCUSD could enjoy further upside.
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