BTCUSD has been trending higher recently, moving above a rising trend line on its 1-hour chart. However, it looks like buyers are losing steam, as price has been unable to make a strong bounce after the latest test of support.
Price is still hovering around the 38.2% Fib on the latest swing high and low, probably waiting for more market signals when it comes to establishing a direction. Dollar weakness has been mostly responsible for the recent price gains but it appears as though risk aversion stemming from the Brexit issue is weighing on BTCUSD gains.
For now, the trend line, Fibs and 100 SMA might hold as near term support. The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA anyway, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside and that the uptrend is likely to resume at some point.
Stochastic is on the move down, hinting at a buildup in bearish pressure. RSI is also heading south, confirming that sellers are taking control. In that case, a downside break from the trend line could set off a prolonged drop for BTCUSD.
Potential catalysts today include the release of US existing home sales and the CB leading index, with strong data likely to support the dollar and weak data likely to lead to a bounce for BTCUSD. After all, dollar demand has been fading on lower expectations of a Fed rate hike in March.
A shift in market sentiment to favor the safe-haven dollar, however, could mean a strong downside break of the trend line for BTCUSD. A candle close below the 61.8% Fib or $430 might be enough to confirm a breach of support and potentially sharper declines for BTCUSD.
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