BTCUSD has been trending higher, moving inside a rising channel on its 1-hour time frame. Price got rejected on its test of resistance and is now back to testing the bottom of the range.
If support continues to hold, a move to the resistance around $460 could be seen again. On the other hand, a break below the $450 area could mean a longer-term selloff for BTCUSD.
Technical indicators seem to be favoring a bounce, as the 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside. Stochastic has made its way out of the oversold area, reflecting a return in buying pressure, while RSI is on the way up so BTCUSD price could follow suit.
The US dollar drew some demand earlier in the week when risk aversion rose following downbeat imports data from China. However, risk-taking resumed in the latter sessions after crude oil rallied.
A report from the EIA showed higher global demand forecasts for this year and the next, easing global growth concerns and encouraging investors to put money in higher-yielding assets like bitcoin. However, market participants appear to be waiting for stronger catalysts for now before establishing larger positions.
Major reports on the economic calendar include the BOE interest rate statement and Inflation Report, New Zealand quarterly retail sales data, and the US retail sales and PPI readings. For now, BTCUSD could stay in consolidation and wait for stronger market clues before finding a clear direction.
Price is finding support at the 200 SMA near $450 and resistance at $456 for the time being, with a bullish candle above the short-term range likely to indicate bullish momentum and a bearish candle below the range likely to show bearish pressure.
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