BTCUSD is still trending higher, moving inside its bullish channel visible on the 1-hour time frame. Price just recently bounced off the channel support and is stalling at the mid-channel area of interest.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame so the path of least resistance is still to the upside. In addition, the 100 SMA held as dynamic support while the 200 SMA is closer to the channel bottom at $612, which might be the line in the sand for any uptrend correction.
The gap between the moving averages is widening, which means that bullish pressure is getting stronger. In that case, a break past the channel resistance at $620 for a sharper climb is possible.
However, RSI and stochastic are both heading south to indicate that buyers are exhausted and allowing sellers to take over. Once these oscillators reach the oversold regions and turn higher, buying pressure could resume.
Risk appetite has picked up at the start of the week after the US presidential debates favored Hillary Clinton in the polls, allowing investors to reestablish their long positions on higher-yielding equities and assets like bitcoin. However, the US dollar could still get a boost from the reports due this week.
The FOMC will publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting on Wednesday and this would shed more light on when the rate hike might take place. A strongly hawkish tone could lead to more gains for the dollar across the board while emphasis on caution could keep bitcoin afloat. Also due later on this week are the retail sales and PPI numbers, which would indicate how consumer spending and inflation have fared in September.