BTCUSD is still stalling at the mid-channel area of interest visible on its 4-hour chart. Price has yet to test support or resistance before establishing a clearer direction.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the upside and that further gains are likely. In addition, the 200 SMA coincides with the bottom of the channel around $580, adding to its strength as support. The gap between the moving averages is widening to indicate stronger bullish momentum.
Price seems to be breaking below the short-term consolidation though, likely indicating a potential test of the channel support. RSI is turning lower to show that sellers are taking control of price action while stochastic is also heading south from the overbought zone. If buyers regain control of price action, BTCUSD could make its way back up to the channel resistance at $640 or higher.
Trading has been subdued as market players are likely sitting tight ahead of today’s top-tier events. These include monetary policy statements from the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. No actual policy changes are expected but risk sentiment could be driven by their economic assessment and outlook.
In addition, the US is set to print a bunch of top-tier reports, namely retail sales, PPI, industrial production, initial jobless claims, and its current account balance. Downbeat data could weigh on Fed rate hike odds for next week or even the rest of the year while strong upside surprises could keep tightening expectations in play, supporting the dollar against bitcoin.
A downside break of the channel support might even be possible if data comes in significantly upbeat. Apart from fueling demand for USD-denominated assets, expectations of tightening could also dampen risk appetite and weigh on the riskier cryptocurrency.