BTCUSD price has formed higher lows and lower highs on the 4-hour time frame, creating a symmetrical triangle pattern. Price is now testing the triangle resistance and might turn back towards support if the $410 area keeps gains in check.
Stochastic is in the overbought area so buyers might need to take a break soon and let sellers take over. In that case, BTCUSD price could make it back down to the bottom of the formation near $380. RSI is also heading south so price might follow suit.
In addition, the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA so the downtrend is likely to resume. However, the moving averages are edging closer to each other, signaling that an upward crossover might be possible. If so, more buyers could join the fold and push BTCUSD price past the triangle resistance.
In that case, price could rally to the next ceiling around $450-465. Stronger buying pressure could even take it up to the previous year highs at $500. On the other hand, a return in selling pressure could lead to a move below the triangle support and a test of the lows near $300.
Event risks include the upcoming release of the FOMC minutes, as more hints of staying put in March could mean more losses for the US dollar and therefore more gains for BTCUSD price. Data from the US economy has been somewhat weaker than expected and Fed officials have expressed their concerns about falling commodity prices and financial market volatility.
Also, stronger risk appetite in the financial markets are helping support BTCUSD price for now, even as European equities and crude oil prices have ended lower. Asian markets were also off to a rough start after the PBOC set their yuan fix lower.
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