BTCUSD recently made a strong break below a symmetrical triangle, confirming that further losses are in the cards. However, sellers are still hesitating to take price lower, possibly waiting for an opportunity to short at a much better price.
Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% level lines up with the broken triangle support, which is also near the moving averages. The 100 SMA appears ready to make a downward crossover from the 200 SMA, signaling a buildup in bearish pressure.
In that case, a shallow retracement to the 38.2% Fib could be enough to push BTCUSD back in its downtrend, leading to a test of the previous lows at $415 or perhaps a break lower until $400. Stochastic and RSI are on the move up, though, so buyers are still in control for now.
Event catalysts include the upcoming NFP release, which could spur volatility for the US dollar. Strong results could revive rate hike expectations, which might be positive for the dollar and push BTCUSD down, while weak data could mean dollar losses.
Intraday resistance levels to watch include the Fib levels at $425, $428, and $430. A break above the 61.8% Fib could lead to a run up to the $445 highs and beyond while a break below the previous low of $415 could result in a test of support at $400.
Other factors that could influence BTCUSD price action are market risk sentiment, although correlations between commodities and riskier assets like bitcoin and equities appear to be breaking down. In any case, expect additional volatility leading up to and during the NFP figures, although price might still return to its previous trading levels before the end of the week.
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