BTCUSD has formed higher lows on the 1-hour time frame, allowing an ascending trend line to form. Price is now testing the rising support area and might be due for a bounce back to the previous highs.
Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 61.8% Fib coincides with the trend line and has already held as support. However, price seems to be lacking momentum and is still gathering more bullish energy around the 50% Fib level. A bounce off this area could take it back up to the $450 level.
The 100 SMA is in line with the trend line, acting as another layer of support. In addition, this shorter-term MA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside.
Stochastic is heading south, though, so there may still be some sellers left in the game. Also RSI is moving down but is nearing the oversold area so buyers might be back on top sooner or later. If bearish pressure persists, a break of the trend line support around $425 could set off a short-term selloff.
US data came in stronger than expected on Friday, as CPI readings came in slightly better than consensus, which explains the sharp drop in BTCUSD by the end of the week. Traders might’ve also booked profits off their recent long positions.
This week, risk appetite still seems to be in play so BTCUSD could be in for more rallies. Only the US flash manufacturing PMI is up for release today, leaving market sentiment in control of price action for the most part.
Another factor that could affect risk flows is the oil production cap proposal, although this deal could have difficulty gaining traction since Iran has been stubborn about increasing its output levels.
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