BTCUSD is still trending higher on its 1-hour time frame, bouncing off the channel support around $430. Price made a long spike after touching the support area, which is also near the dynamic support at the moving averages.
The 100 SMA just crossed above the long-term 200 SMA, indicating that the uptrend is likely to carry on and that BTCUSD might make it back to the top of the range near $445. Oscillators are both pointing up, although RSI and stochastic are still on middle ground.
Another test of the channel support could take place before more buyers join the mix. Catalysts for today include the release of US ISM manufacturing PMI, which might show a rise from 48.2 to 48.5 and spur some dollar strength.
Data from the US economy came in weaker than expected yesterday, which was probably why BTCUSD made a quick bounce off the channel support. Still, a break below this level could trigger a longer-term drop, possibly taking price down to the next support at $420 then at $400.
On the other hand, a surge in risk-taking and bullish pressure could push BTCUSD past the channel resistance and onto the next ceiling around $465 then at $500. Other factors that could affect dollar price action and market sentiment for the rest of the week include the NFP report and leading jobs indicators for the US.
Earlier today, Chinese PMI readings came in weaker than expected, as the official PMI fell from 49.4 to 49.0 while the Caixin version dropped from 48.4 to 48.0. The non-manufacturing PMI slid from 53.5 to 52.7, possibly discouraging traders from taking riskier holdings in anticipation of a prolonged global growth slowdown.
Australian GDP and crude oil inventories are up for release tomorrow and these reports could also affect overall market sentiment, with bleak data likely to push BTCUSD lower.
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