BTCUSD price has been under weaker volatility these days but it is showing a slight upward trend. Price is moving inside an ascending channel on its 1-hour time frame and is on its way to the top after recently testing support.
The channel resistance might keep further gains in check, pushing BTCUSD back to the bottom of the range. RSI is turning down from the overbought zone so price might follow suit while stochastic just reached the overbought area, indicating that buying pressure might weaken soon.
Also, the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the downside, although an upward crossover seems possible. In that case, BTCUSD could gain stronger buying momentum and possibly even break past the channel resistance around $445.
Data from the US economy came in stronger than expected on Friday but this wasn’t enough to weigh on BTCUSD. The Q4 2015 US GDP reading was upgraded from 0.7% to 1.0% versus expectations of a downgrade to 0.4% while personal income and spending data also came in strong.
This week, the US non-farm payrolls report might be a big market mover, as this could revive hopes of a Fed rate hike for March. Prior to this release, the leading indicators such as the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing survey results, as well as the ADP non-farm employment change figure, might also lead to USD volatility.
Still, risk sentiment could be a bigger driver of BTCUSD action, as we have seen in the past few days. Fears of a Brexit and another oil price rout have been keeping risk rallies in check but higher odds of a deal to cap oil production among OPEC and non-OPEC nations could yield a strong boost in risk-taking and BTCUSD gains.
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