Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Nov 16, 2017

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USD
Dollar pairs are treading carefully as traders are waiting for more updates on tax reform and the House vote this week. Data came in mixed, with headline and core CPI up 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Headline retail sales rose 0.2% instead of printing a flat reading while the core version of the report showed a 0.1% uptick. Initial jobless claims, import prices, industrial production, and the Philly Fed index are due today.
EUR
The euro retreated from its strong climb earlier in the week despite stronger than expected data. The region’s trade balance turned out stronger than expected at a surplus of 25 billion EUR versus the estimated 21.2 billion EUR reading. Final CPI readings are due today and no revisions to the 1.4% and 0.9% estimates for the headline and core figures are expected.
GBP
The pound regained some ground upon seeing mostly stronger than expected jobs data. Claimant count rose by 1.1K versus the projected 2K increase in joblessness while the average earnings index came in at 2.2% versus the estimated 2.1% increase. The previous reading also enjoyed an upgrade to 2.3% to reflect stronger wage growth than initially reported. UK retail sales data is due today and a 0.1% uptick is eyed.
CHF
The franc continued to advance against most of its peers as it raked in safe-haven gains away from the dollar. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday but the previous ones have been mostly stronger than expected, easing fears of SNB intervention. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today so franc pairs could take their cues from market sentiment.
JPY
The yen also took advantage of dollar weakness and was able to get a boost from the upgraded industrial production figure. The reading was revised from a 1.1% decline to just 1.0% for September. There are no major reports due from Japan today so the yen could continue to wait for clues from the dollar or overall sentiment.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie was one of the weakest performers for the day as it was bogged down by weak wage growth. Earlier today, Australia’s jobs figures turned out weaker than expected as the economy added only 3.7K jobs in October versus the projected 17.8K gain. However, the previous reading was upgraded while the unemployment rate ticked lower. Falling oil prices on rising inventories weighed on the Loonie. New Zealand will release its quarterly PPI next and slower quarterly gains are eyed.

EURAUD Forex Technical Analysis – Nov 16, 2017

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EURAUD was previously trading inside an ascending channel pattern and has surged past the resistance to signal a steeper climb. Price stalled upon reaching resistance at the 1.5600 mark, so a correction to the broken resistance could be due.
This lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.5400-1.5450, which might keep losses in check. A larger correction could last until the 61.8% Fib at 1.5300.
Stochastic is on its way down so price could follow suit while sellers remain in control. The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is still the upside, which means that the uptrend could resume at some point.
Australia’s jobs figures turned out weaker than expected as the economy added only 3.7K jobs in October versus the projected 17.8K gain. On a less downbeat note, the previous reading enjoyed a significant upgrade to show a 26.6K increase in employment while the unemployment rate improved from 5.5% to 5.4%.
Prior to this, Australia’s quarterly wage price index fell short of estimates at 0.5% versus 0.7%. Chinese reports also turned out weaker than expected, suggesting slower demand for raw materials.
As for the euro, the shared currency got a strong boost earlier in the week from stronger than expected flash GDP readings. The region’s trade balance also turned out stronger than expected and final CPI readings are due today.

Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Nov 15, 2017

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USD
The US dollar gave up ground to most of its rivals once more as fresh setbacks to tax reform loomed. Senator Paul Rand shared plans to abolish an Obamacare provision tied to tax legislation and this could mean more complications when it comes to working with the House version, which is scheduled to be voted on this week. US PPI came in stronger than expected with 0.4% gains for both headline and core figures. CPI and retail sales are due today and strong data could still be upstaged by tax reform updates.
EUR
The euro was the strongest performer as it raked in gains across the board on upbeat GDP data. The German economy grew 0.8% versus the projected 0.6% expansion while Italy’s GDP came in line with estimates at 0.5%. The region’s growth figure landed at 0.6% as expected. French final CPI and the region’s trade balance are lined up next.
GBP
The pound dipped upon seeing weaker than expected UK inflation data. Headline CPI came in weaker than expected for October as the reading held steady at 3.0% instead of improving to the estimated 3.1% figure. Core CPI was also unchanged at 2.7% instead of rising to 2.8%. The claimant count change and the average earnings index are lined up next, with the latter expected to fall from 2.2% to 2.1%.
CHF
The franc also advanced against most of its peers as PPI beat expectations. Producer prices rose 0.5% versus the projected 0.2% uptick to signal stronger inflationary pressures down the line. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.
JPY
The Japanese yen advanced to the dollar and comdolls but was weaker against the European currencies. Japan’s economy expanded by 0.3% in Q3 versus the projected 0.4% growth figure and the earlier 0.6% GDP reading. The GDP price index posted a 0.1% uptick as expected and the revised industrial production figure is due next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie was the weakest of the bunch as it got dragged lower by downbeat Chinese data and weak wage growth. Fixed asset investment, industrial production, and retail sales from China came in below consensus, signaling weaker demand for commodities. The quarterly wage price index came in at 0.5% versus 0.7%. US crude oil inventories data is due next.

GBPAUD Forex Technical Analysis – Nov 15, 2017

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GBPAUD is slowly breaking above the resistance of its symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily time frame. This chart pattern is approximately 2000 pips tall so the resulting uptrend could be of the same height.
The 100 SMA has just crossed below the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame but appears to be ready for another upward crossover that could draw bulls back in. Stochastic has been on the move down but is turning higher as well.
UK CPI came in weaker than expected for October as the reading held steady at 3.0% instead of improving to the estimated 3.1% figure. Core CPI was also unchanged at 2.7% instead of rising to 2.8%.
Traders are now waiting on the release of the claimant count change and the average earnings index for signs of wage growth. The index is slated to dip from 2.2% to 2.1% to signal weaker spending and inflationary pressures.
As for the Australian dollar, the currency was weighed down by downbeat Chinese industrial production and fixed asset investment which signaled slower demand for commodities. The Aussie also got hit by weaker than expected quarterly wage price index, which posted a 0.5% gain versus the estimated 0.7% increase. Australia’s jobs figures are due tomorrow.

Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Nov 14, 2017

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USD
The US dollar recovered against some of its peers at the start of the week as traders renewed hopes for tax reform progress. There were no reports from the US economy yesterday while today has PPI data and a speech by Chairperson Yellen. The House is scheduled to vote on their version of the tax bill on Thursday and Trump will be giving a speech to urge GOP members to work together.
EUR
The euro advanced against most of its counterparts as it took some of the flows from the pound. Traders are also likely bracing for strong flash GDP data from Germany, Italy, and the entire region. ECB head Draghi has a testimony scheduled, ahead of the release of German ZEW economic sentiment data and euro zone industrial production.
GBP
The pound was off to a terrible start in the week on reports of troubles in UK PM May’s government but traders quickly booked profits off the short positions ahead of this week’s top-tier releases. For today, the CPI readings are due and the headline figure is expected to climb from 3.0% to 3.1% which might keep the BOE in hiking mode. Core CPI could also tick higher and BOE head Carney has a speech due.
CHF
The franc was able to scrape some gains on risk-off flows for the most part of the day. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has PPI numbers due. Producer prices could post a 0.2% uptick, slower than the earlier 0.5% gain.
JPY
The yen also took advantage of risk aversion yesterday but traders could be a little more cautious ahead of the Japanese preliminary GDP release later on. The economy likely grew 0.4%, slower than the earlier 0.6% expansion. BOJ head Kuroda has another speech lined up and he is expected to highlight the effectiveness of the QQE program and the challenges facing inflation.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie was on rocky footing ahead of Chinese data due today. Industrial production and fixed asset investment are projected to fall, which would signal weaker demand for raw materials and commodities, while retail sales could tick higher. Crude oil is having trouble sustaining its climb on rising US oil rig counts, leading many to book profits off the positively-correlated Loonie as well.

AUDUSD Forex Technical Analysis – Nov 14, 2017

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AUDUSD was previously trading sideways between support around .7650 and resistance at .7700-.7725. Price has just broken below the range support and looks ready for a pullback before heading further south.
Using the Fib tool on the breakout move shows that the 38.2% level is close to the broken support that might now hold as resistance. Stochastic is climbing out of the oversold region to indicate that sellers are taking a break.
Still, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside, which means that the selloff is likely to resume at some point. These moving averages are closer to the 61.8% Fib, which might be the line in the sand for the downtrend.
The US dollar has been extra sensitive to tax reform updates from Washington in the past few days as the economy is waiting on tax cuts before the end of the year. The House is scheduled to vote on their version of the bill by Thursday and US President Trump is set to give a speech to urge them to work together before the vote.
In terms of data, CPI and retail sales are up for release from the US on Wednesday and strong upside surprises could revive dollar demand. Speeches from a number of FOMC members are lined up on Thursday as well.
As for the Australian dollar, the employment report is due later in the week but the currency could take its cue from Chinese reports earlier on. Industrial production and fixed asset investment are foreseen to dip, which would mean lower demand for raw material commodity products and a likely drop in risk appetite.

Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Nov 13, 2017

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USD
The US dollar had a mixed run against its counterparts at the end of the previous trading week as banks were closed for Veterans Day. The preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index fell from 100.7 to 97.8 versus the estimated improvement to 100.8 to reflect weaker optimism. Only the federal budget balance is due next and the focus could remain on tax reform.
EUR
The euro managed to hold its ground by the end of the week as sellers probably booked profits from their short positions earlier on. Data from the region was weaker than expected as French preliminary private payrolls and Italian industrial production came in short of consensus. Germany is set to print its wholesale price index and might show a 0.4% increase.
GBP
The pound was off to a weak start this week even as the UK printed stronger than expected manufacturing production data on Friday. Both industrial and manufacturing production rose 0.7% while the goods trade deficit was smaller than expected. Earlier today, the Rightmove HPI showed a 0.4% fall in house prices.
CHF
The franc was able to chalk up some gains against most of its rivals even though there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today so the currency could be sensitive to its counterparts’ direction and overall market sentiment.
JPY
The yen was in a weak spot on Friday as risk appetite was present for the most part. Japanese tertiary industry activity fell 0.2% versus the projected 0.1% dip. Over the weekend, the PPI turned out stronger than expected with a 3.4% gain versus the projected 3.1% increase. Preliminary machine tool orders data is due next, along with a speech by BOJ Governor Kuroda.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to stay afloat against most of their peers as risk appetite was on their side. There were actually no major reports from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada then and none are due today as Canadian banks are closed for the holiday. With that, the comdolls could be off to a slow start or could stay sensitive to market sentiment.

EURJPY Forex Technical Analysis – Nov 13, 2017

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EURJPY has been trading sideways recently, bouncing off support near 132.00 and resistance at 136.25. Price is testing support once more and could be due for another climb to the top or at least until the middle of the range around 133.00.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside, which means that support is more likely to hold than to break. However, stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions and is starting to turn lower to signal a pickup in selling pressure. A downside break of support could lead to a drop of around 400 pips or the same height as the chart pattern.
Economic data from the euro zone turned out mostly weaker than expected on Friday as French preliminary private payrolls and Italian industrial production came in short of consensus. Japanese data was also downbeat as the tertiary industry activity index posted a 0.2% decline instead of the estimated 0.1% dip.
Only the preliminary machine tool orders data is due from Japan today and a stronger increase compared to the earlier 45% year-over-year gain could be positive for the yen. Meanwhile, Germany is set to print its wholesale price index and might show a 0.4% increase.
Flash GDP readings from the euro zone nations and the region itself are lined up for the next few days and this should give traders more insight on how the ECB might proceed with its policy changes. Japan also has its preliminary GDP reading due and a 0.4% expansion is expected for Q3.

VIB TOKEN LISTED ON BITTREX, VIBERATE ENHANCES RELATIONSHIP WITH CHARLIE SHREM

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The token for the live music industry, $VIB, is now available to trade on Bittrex, the world’s third biggest exchange according to Coinmarketcap, following the recent listings on Binance, UpBit and HitBTC.

Wednesday was a big day for the Slovenia-based music startup that sold out their ICO in under 5 minutes.

Bittrex is of course the logical step for any serious cryptocurrency. Working with them has been a delight and we are happy have their support. Having our token listed on such a big and reputable exchange only proves that the stakeholders in this industry believe in our project and share our vision. Our token holders kept asking us when we’ll have the token listed there, because they wanted an exchange with a high volume. With the help of our advisers we are now happy to ring the bell and start trading at Bittrex.” said Viberate’s CEO and co-founder Matej Gregorcic.

Charlie Shrem, the startup’s most well known adviser, played an important role in getting the coin to one of world’s top exchanges. He thinks that the two companies working together is something that had to happen: “I’m happy to help use relationships to further more business in benefit of the greater community. Viberate is an amazing project and Bittrex the best exchange, of course they would be together.” The company also announced that they are extending their relationship with the Bitcoin Foundation founder, who remains on board as an adviser, helping the team with his wide network as well as with day-to-day operations regarding the Viberate token. The first major upgrade of the token and the platform Viberate.com is due in the coming weeks and will allow anyone to earn VIB tokens by contributing content to the platform.

Landing the VIB token on a big exchange however won’t be the payday for founders and the team. Their personal tokens are vested for a 2-year period with monthly cliffs. Gregorcic pointed out that they want to lead by example: “Personally, I don’t think that any of our employees, who have tokens, would dump the whole stash. We have the best team in the world and we all believe we’ll truly rock the music world to the very foundation. Holding on to precious coins is in everyone’s best interest, so fear of dumping wasn’t the reason why we decided to reverse vest them. We wanted to show that this is how it should be done, because we saw one too many bad examples of company’s tokens being dumped in the eyes of contributors who trusted the project with their own money. We’re even slightly adjusted our smart contract in order to show exactly how many tokens vest each month, so anyone can check on us.

 

Daily Forex Technical Analysis – Nov 10, 2017

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USD
The US dollar was mostly weaker against its peers as the Senate version of the tax plan differed with that of the House. This signals that it would take much longer than initially expected before any of these are implemented, especially since Senate is also proposing a one-year delay for the cuts. US banks are closed for the holiday today but the UoM preliminary consumer sentiment index is still up for release and analysts are expecting to see an increase from 100.7 to 100.8.
EUR
The euro got a boost from upgraded forecasts by the EU, which supported the idea of tapering next year and possibly an interest rate hike later on. ECB member Coeure also had a testimony with hawkish remarks suggesting that QE cannot go on indefinitely. Data also turned out better than expected as the German trade balance showed a surplus of 21.8 billion EUR versus the estimated 21.0 billion EUR figure. French industrial production and private payrolls are due next, along with Italian industrial production data.
GBP
The pound was dragged lower by the usual slew of Brexit concerns and the possibility of delaying the trade talks to next year. UK manufacturing production data is due today and analysts are expecting to see a 0.3% uptick while industrial production could also post a 0.3% gain. The goods trade balance and NIESR GDP estimate are also lined up.
CHF
The franc ticked higher during the London session as risk aversion was present but gave up some of its ground to the commodity currencies later on. The Swiss jobless rate came in line with expectations at 3.1%. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could be sensitive to market sentiment.
JPY
The yen had a mixed run as the lack of top-tier data left it vulnerable to currency-specific factors. The tertiary industry activity index is up for release next and analysts are expecting to see a 0.1% dip. Yen price action could also hinge on risk sentiment and bond yields from here.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie was able to hold on to its gains, thanks to dollar weakness and the continued strength in crude oil prices. Rumors that the crown prince of Saudi Arabia will take the throne soon reinforced the anti-corruption crackdown, which has been positive for the commodity. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies.

EURUSD Forex Technical Analysis – Nov 10, 2017

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EURUSD has been trending lower since breaking below the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. Price is now moving inside a descending channel pattern and looks ready for a pullback to the resistance.
Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool on the swing high and low shows that the 50% to 61.8% levels are close to the channel resistance. This also coincides with the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term moving average so the path of least resistance is to the downside, which suggests that the downtrend is likely to continue. Stochastic is still pointing up but already dipping into overbought territory to reflect rally exhaustion.
The US dollar took some hits on setbacks to the tax plan as the Senate version contained several key differences with the one in Congress. This suggests that it would take much longer than initially expected before any of these are implemented, especially since Senate is also proposing a one-year delay for the cuts.
Medium-tier US data has been mixed, with initial jobless claims coming in higher than expected and final wholesale inventories printing a 0.3% increase as expected. US banks are closed for the holiday today but the UoM preliminary consumer sentiment index is still up for release and analysts are expecting to see an increase from 100.7 to 100.8.
The euro drew support from upgraded forecasts by the EU, which supported the idea of tapering next year and possibly an interest rate hike later on. ECB member Coeure also had a testimony with hawkish remarks suggesting that QE cannot go on indefinitely.

Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Nov 9, 2017

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USD
The US dollar rallied then reversed as traders have been paying extra close attention to tax reform updates. Senators are gearing up to unveil their version of the tax bill today while Congress will vote on theirs next week. There have also been rumors that Senate might impose a one-year delay before implementing tax cuts. Only the initial jobless claims and final wholesale inventories data are due today, so the focus could still be on tax reform.
EUR
The euro weakened to the commodity currencies but managed to regain ground against the yen and pound. Only the French trade balance was released from the region and the actual figure came in line with expectations, leaving the shared currency reactive to its counterparts instead. German trade balance and EU economic forecasts are up for release today, but these aren’t highly expected to cause huge swings for the euro.
GBP
The pound was one of the weakest performers for the day as fresh Brexit jitters popped up. There has been waning support for PM May’s government and it doesn’t help that the EU is suggesting pushing back future negotiations until unresolved major issues regarding citizen’s rights in the post-Brexit period are settled. There were no major reports out of the UK yesterday and none are due today, so the focus could remain on Brexit uncertainties.
CHF
The franc slid mostly lower against its peers as risk-taking was in play. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has a speech by SNB head Jordan. Jawboning could be part of his testimony as usual but expressing less concern about franc strength could allow the currency to rebound.
JPY
The yen had a mixed run as it mostly reacted to country-specific factors. Data turned out weaker than expected as core machinery orders sank by 8.1% instead of just by 1.8% while the current account surplus was smaller than expected at 1.84T JPY. The Economy Watchers Sentiment index is due next and a fall from 51.3 to 50.7 is eyed.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Kiwi got its wings back when the RBNZ kept rates on hold as expected while adjusting its forecast for hitting the inflation target earlier. This also meant an adjustment to their OCR interest rate forecasts. Acting Governor Spencer also assured that government changes would have little effect on economic conditions. Chinese CPI readings turned out better than expected, which is also supporting the Kiwi at the moment, while US crude oil inventories rose by 2.2 million barrels instead of falling by 2.5 million.