Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Sept 25, 2017

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USD
The dollar finished the week on a strong note after the FOMC decision earlier on turned out more upbeat than expected. Data on Friday turned out mixed as the flash manufacturing PMI rose from 52.8 to 53.0 versus the projected 53.0 figure while the flash services PMI fell from 56.0 to 55.1 versus the projected 55.8 figure. There are no major reports due from the US today but FOMC members Kashkari and Evans have testimonies lined up.
EUR
The shared currency was able to make a rebound against its higher-yielding peers as risk aversion peeked back in the markets. PMI readings all turned out stronger than expected, which means positive prospects for the overall economy and supports the idea of ECB tapering before the end of the year. ECB head Draghi has another testimony scheduled today and upbeat remarks could push the euro higher.
GBP
The pound paused from its recent rallies as UK PM May’s speech failed to impress the bulls. UK CBI industrial order expectations also turned out weaker than expected as the reading fell from 13 to 7 to reflect slower growth instead of holding steady. There are no major reports due from the UK economy today.
CHF
The Swiss franc carried on with its mixed run as it mostly reacted to market sentiment and currency-specific factors. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday and none are due today so the same market behavior could be seen.
JPY
The yen finished the week on a downbeat note as the BOJ’s easing bias weighed on the currency. Earlier today, the flash manufacturing PMI turned out weaker than expected as it rose from 52.2 to 52.6 versus the projected rise to 53.4. BOJ Governor Kuroda has a speech lined up so additional volatility could be in the cards.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Kiwi is off to a shaky start as the weekend elections in New Zealand failed to generate a majority government for the National Party. This could mean the political limbo could last a bit longer as parties try to negotiate a coalition. New Zealand’s trade balance is also due next while RBA Assistant Governor Bullock has a speech coming up. Meanwhile, oil drew a bit of support on stronger expectations of an output deal extension after the latest OPEC meeting.

AUDNZD Forex Technical Analysis – Sept 25, 2017

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AUDNZD recently broke below the ascending channel support on its 4-hour time frame to signal that a reversal is underway. Before that happens though, price could still make a pullback to the broken support. However, the 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that there’s a chance the uptrend might resume.
Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the broken support lines up with the 61.8% level around the 1.1000 major psychological level. Stochastic is pointing up to show that buyers are in control for now until the oscillator hits overbought levels and turns back down.
The New Zealand elections held over the weekend resulted to a victory for the National Party but not enough for them to take majority. This means that politics will be in limbo for a bit longer as the country waits for a coalition to be formed.
Another potential event risk for the Kiwi is the upcoming RBNZ decision. Even though no actual interest rate changes are expected, traders appear to be pricing in a less upbeat statement from the central bank since jobs growth recently disappointed. Kiwi strength could also be one of the issues pointed out and more jawboning could keep a cap on the currency’s gains.
There are no major catalysts lined up for the Aussie, which indicates that it might simply act as a counter currency in the next few days or be more sensitive to price action of gold and iron ore. Market sentiment could also push these higher-yielding currencies around.

Cascade Dairy Holdings Inc (OTCMKTS:TBEV) Announces Acquisition

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Cascade Dairy Holdings Inc (OTCMKTS:TBEV), formerly High Performance Beverage, shares were flat at $0.00010 and unchanged in after-hours trading. Share prices have been trading in a 52-week range of $0.00 to $0.00. It is a beverage company in the process of transitioning itself into the dairy production and value-added dairy processing industry.

In a press release, Cascade Dairy Holdings Inc announced the completion of its previously announced plans to acquire 51% controlling interest of Columbia Basin Dairy Holdings. They will start with an initial 60 cow dairy herd with monthly revenue expected to be approximately $22,032 or $264,384 per annum.

“Our acquisition of the controlling interest of Columbia Basin Dairy Holdings and the 60 cow dairy herd is positive progress for Cascade Dairy Holdings. Our herd will now be contracted to another milking operation, while we currently work on plans to acquire our own dairy operation,” said Cascade Dairy Holdings Inc CEO and President Ryan Coulston.

“I am also glad to report that within a very short period of time, we have demonstrated our ability to acquire revenue producing assets. However, this is just the first of a series of acquisitions we have targeted, which we believe, if completed, will allow us to substantiate Cascade Dairy Holdings, Inc. as a competitive player in the multi-billion dollar dairy industry,” he continued.

“We also want shareholders to have confidence that we are not contemplating any type of changes to the share structure of the Company in the form of any stock splits at this time. Our sole primary focus is to build our core operations through strategic acquisitions, the development of those operations, and multiple revenue streams,” Coulston concluded.

Coulston was appointed President and CEO a few months back. “We are pleased to bring our vision for dairy management and dairy value-added processing to High Performance Beverages Company. The new direction we intend to take the Company will create tangible value for shareholders and have a high impact in the rural economy where we operate by creating good paying full time employment,” he stated then.

Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Sept 22, 2017

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USD
The US dollar enjoyed a strong rally against its peers as economic reports turned out stronger than expected and underscored the Fed’s tightening bias. Initial jobless claims fell from 282K to 259K versus the projected 302K figure while the Philly Fed index rose from 18.9 to 23.8. US flash manufacturing and services PMI are due next.
EUR
The euro was able to regain ground as European equities closed in the green as Draghi sounded more upbeat about the fiscal recovery in the region. In his testimony, he mentioned that the financial system poses a lower risk to the economy. Euro zone PMI readings are due next and strong figures from Germany and France could allow the shared currency to keep climbing.
GBP
The pound broke higher to most of its counterparts on anticipation for PM May’s speech as she reportedly might offer 20 billion EUR in a transitional deal with the EU in hopes of speeding up negotiations. It also could convince the bloc to concede to maintaining access to the single market and other conditions that could favor the UK.
CHF
The franc regained some ground as risk appetite took a hit after the Fed decision. The Swiss trade balance, however, turned out weaker than expected at 2.17 billion CHF versus the projected 2.41 billion CHF reading. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could be more sensitive to market sentiment.
JPY
The yen edged slightly lower after the BOJ decision as the central bank maintained interest rates at current levels and kept the pace of JGB purchases unchanged. The central bank also kept a slight easing bias as hinted by Governor Kuroda during the presser. There are no reports due from Japan today so risk sentiment could be the main driver for the yen pairs.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took huge hits in previous trading sessions as the impact of Fed tightening dawned on commodities. Canadian wholesale sales posted a stronger than expected 1.5% gain versus the estimated 0.7% drop, sending positive vibes ahead of the retail sales and CPI releases today. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% increase in headline retail sales and a 0.4% uptick for the core figure. New Zealand will be having its parliamentary elections next.

AUDJPY Forex Technical Analysis – Sept 22, 2017

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AUDJPY continues to trend higher and is moving inside an ascending channel pattern on its 4-hour chart. Price just bounced off the resistance at 90.30 and is making a pullback to support at the 89.00 area.
Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 61.8% level lines up with the channel support, adding to its strength as a floor. However, price already seems to be bouncing off the 50% Fib and could be poised for another test of resistance from here.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. This means that the uptrend is more likely to continue than to reverse. Stochastic is still pointing down to indicate that there may be a bit of selling pressure left before Aussie bulls get back in the game.
The BOJ kept interest rates on hold as expected and didn’t trigger too much of a reaction from the Japanese currency. The central bank also maintained its pace of JGB purchases while keeping a relatively upbeat outlook on the economy.
However, the Aussie was on the decline due to weaker commodity prices, particularly metals like iron ore. The latest FOMC statement, which turned out more hawkish than expected, was being blamed for the selloff as a tightening bias would weigh on global demand down the line.
There are no other reports lined up from Japan or Australia for the rest of the week as traders look to market sentiment for clues. There are still some concerns about an attack from North Korea, which would drastically weigh on the higher-yielding Aussie and might lead to a gap over the weekend if the tension escalates.

Why Sugarmade Inc (OTCMKTS:SGMD) Shares Rushed Higher

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Sugarmade Inc (OTCMKTS:SGMD) shares jumped 10.94% to $0.0355 and were flat in after-hours trading. Share prices have been trading in a 52-week range of $0.02 to $0.42. The company has a market cap of $7.58 million at 213.49 million shares outstanding.

In a press release, Sugarmade Inc announced that laboratory research has produced an optimum proprietary packaging atmosphere that will allow long-term storage of cannabis in the new BudLife containers. The company considers this a highly significant breakthrough in the cannabis industry.

“We are super excited to be the exclusive distributor for BudLife products for the single largest cannabis market in the world, the U.S. states of California, Oregon and Washington,” commented Sugarmade Inc CEO Jimmy Chan. “We believe this breakthrough is really important. With the growing glut of cannabis flowers in the marketplace, storage will be more critical than ever.”

It is also working with Plantation to turn development efforts toward finalizing the packing design. The companies expect to begin taking orders for BudLife in Q4 2017.

Sugarmade Inc is a company that is engaged in the supply of products to the quick service restaurant sub-sector of the restaurant industry. It is a distributor of paper products derived from non-wood sources.

As of June 30, 2015, the company’s operating unit, CarryOutSupplies.com, which is a producer and wholesaler of custom printed and generic takeout supplies served more than 3,000 quick service restaurants. It conducts its operations in an industry segment, including paper and paper-based products, such as paper cups, cup lids, food containers and others.

Its products also include double poly paper cups for cold beverage, yogurt cups, ice cream cups, soup containers and plastic spoons. It is a manufacturer and distributor of tree free copy and printer paper products, made from sugarcane waste and bamboo for home and office environments under the Sugarmade brand name. It has also acquired a minority stake in various patents and products for seasoning and spices for food items.

Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Sept 20, 2017

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USD
The dollar was one of the weaker currencies for the day even as data came in better than expected. Building permits came in at 1.30 million versus the 1.22 million consensus while housing starts fell from 1.19 million to 1.18 million, still higher than the estimate at 1.17 million. Import prices rose 0.6% versus the estimated 0.4% uptick. The dollar’s dip was likely due to profit-taking ahead of the FOMC decision as many are anticipating to see downgrades in growth forecasts on account of the recent hurricanes.
EUR
The euro managed to stay in the green, except against the Aussie and Kiwi, as data turned out strong. The current account surplus grew from 22.8 billion EUR to 25.1 billion EUR while the German ZEW economic sentiment index rose from 10 to 17, outpacing the consensus at 12.3. The region’s ZEW figure rose from 29.3 to 31.7, just short of the 32.4 consensus. Only the German PPMI is due today and a 0.1% uptick is eyed.
GBP
The pound had a mixed run as it seemed to get pushed around by its counterparts on the lack of top-tier UK data. Retail sales is due next and a 0.2% uptick is expected, slightly lower than the earlier 0.3% gain. Stronger than expected results could revive BOE rate hike hopes, although the rally could be subdued after Carney previously mentioned that they’re hiking was mostly due to the rise in global interest rates.
CHF
The franc was in a weak spot as risk appetite was present in the markets and there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy. The SNB Quarterly Bulletin is up for release today but this doesn’t normally lead to big moves for the Swiss currency, leaving it sensitive to market sentiment once more.
JPY
The yen also gave up some ground on risk-taking and the lack of top-tier reports to keep it supported. Traders are also likely adjusting their positions ahead of the BOJ decision this week. For today, the trade balance is due and a 0.41 trillion JPY surplus is eyed, up from the earlier 0.32 trillion JPY reading.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie and Kiwi were mostly in the lead as the RBA minutes didn’t turn out too downbeat while the GDT auction yielded a 0.9% gain in dairy prices. New Zealand’s current account balance is due next and a deficit of 0.82 billion NZD is eyed after the earlier surplus of 0.24 billion NZD. Canadian manufacturing sales sank 2.6% versus the projected 1.7% drop. New Zealand’s quarterly GDP is due in the next Asian session and a 0.8% growth figure is eyed.

EURCAD Forex Technical Analysis – Sept 20, 2017

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EURCAD is forming a descending triangle on its 4-hour chart and could be due for a test of the top. This lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near the 1.4850 minor psychological mark and a former support zone.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. This means that the resistance is more likely to hold than to break. Price is currently testing the 100 SMA dynamic resistance but may still have some momentum left to test the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point.
Stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions and is starting to turn lower to show a return in selling pressure. If any of the Fibs are able to keep gains in check, price could fall back to support around the 1.4500 handle.
The main event risks for this trade are the Canadian retail sales and CPI releases on Friday. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% increase in headline retail sales, faster than the earlier 0.1% uptick, and a 0.4% gain in the core version of the report. Headline CPI is projected to come in at 0.2% after staying flat in the previous month.
As for the euro, volatility could also kick higher towards the end of the week with a couple of speeches by Draghi and the PMI readings from its top economies. ECB officials have been trying to talk down the shared currency, wary of spurring more gains on speculations of ECB tapering.
If Draghi emphasizes the challenges posed by a stronger euro, the shared currency could give up more of its recent gains. On the other hand, focusing on the improvements in the region and giving more clues on what their next policy moves might be could keep it supported.

Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Sept 19, 2017

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USD
The dollar is off to a strong start against its peers as traders must be adjusting their positions ahead of the FOMC decision later in the week. Data printed on Friday came in weaker than expected as headline consumer spending fell 0.2% instead of rising by the estimated 0.1% uptick. US building permits and housing starts, as well as the current account balance and import prices, are up for release.
EUR
The euro was also off to a good start this week as it bounced against most of its counterparts when final CPI readings were unchanged. Keep in mind that both the headline and core reading have indicated a pickup in price levels over the past month, supporting ECB tapering expectations next month or in December. Canadian manufacturing sales data is due today and a 1.4% drop is eyed.
GBP
The pound made a bit of a retreat from its strong surge on Friday as traders probably booked profits ahead of the UK retail sales release later this week. The Rightmove HPI showed a 1.2% decline in house prices, following the earlier 0.9% slide. There are no major reports due from the UK for now so bulls might take a bit of a pause.
CHF
The franc weakened to the dollar but made a bit of a rebound against some of its peers as the SNB dialed down its intervention threats. There were no reports out from the franc so far this week and none are due today so market sentiment or currency-specific action could push franc pairs around.
JPY
The yen was off to a weak start as risk appetite extended its stay on the lack of moves from North Korea so far. At the same time, traders are also likely adjusting their positions ahead of the BOJ decision later this week. Japanese banks were closed for the holiday on Monday and there are no major reports due today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were on the back foot as the gang corrected from their strong rallies last week. Canada’s foreign securities purchase came in stronger than expected while BOC member Lane reiterated that rates are still relatively low. New Zealand’s Westpac consumer sentiment index is due next and the RBA will be printing its meeting minutes next.

USDCAD Forex Technical Analysis – Sept 19, 2017

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USDCAD continues to trend lower but seems to be in a correction from its current selloff. Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool shows that the the 50% level lines up with the trend line resistance and the 1.2400 major psychological level that might keep gains in check.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside, which means that the downtrend is more likely to continue than to reverse. The 100 SMA is already holding as dynamic resistance at the moment but both RSI and stochastic are still on the move up to signal that the correction is still in play.
The line in the sand is at the 61.8% Fib or the 1.2500 handle, which lines up with a previous support zone. A convincing break past this area could signal that buyers are getting stronger and are ready to sustain an uptrend.
The main event risk for this setup is the FOMC statement as the central bank will also release its updated growth forecasts, which might contain revisions on account of the recent hurricanes. In this meeting, a press conference is also scheduled so traders are likely to pay close attention to Yellen’s responses to get clues on whether December tightening is still possible or not.
Canada’s top-tier events aren’t scheduled to take place until Friday, during which the CPI and retail sales figures will be printed. Stronger than expected results could continue to fuel expectations for another BOC interest rate hike before the end of the year.
Both the BOC and the FOMC have hiked interest rates twice this year but the former has been more of a surprise compared to the latter. In fact, rate hike expectations for the Fed have considerably fallen in the past few months on downbeat inflation and slowing employment.

Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Sept 18, 2017

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USD
The dollar was mostly weaker against its peers on Friday as economic reports disappointed. Headline retail sales slipped 0.2% instead of posting the estimated 0.1% uptick while the core version of the report indicated a smaller than expected 0.2% gain versus the 0.5% consensus. Industrial production and capacity utilization also disappointed while the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index dipped to 95.3. Only a couple of medium-tier reports are lined up today, keeping traders’ attention on the North Korea situation and more updates on tax reform.
EUR
The euro had a mixed run as it reacted mostly to currency-specific events. The region’s trade surplus was below consensus at 18.6 billion EUR versus 20.1 billion EUR while the previous reading was downgraded to 21.7 billion EUR. Final CPI readings and the Italian trade balance are up for release today.
GBP
The pound got another boost on Friday and carried on with its post-BOE rally when MPC member Vlieghe refrained from jawboning the currency. He signaled a shift from his usual dovish tone to a more hawkish bias, leading many to speculate that it’s only a matter of time before the central bank hikes rates. Earlier today, the Rightmove HPI showed a 1.2% drop in house prices.
CHF
The Swiss franc also had a mixed performance as the lower-yielding currency mostly reacted to its counterparts and was also hit by some profit-taking at the end of the week. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday and none are due today so the week could be off to a slow start for franc pairs.
JPY
The yen lost ground to most of its peers as bulls now seem to be worried about the potential repercussions of a North Korean missile strike on the Japanese economy. Traders also lightened up on their holdings ahead of the BOJ statement this week. Japanese banks are closed for the holiday today, though
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave up a bit of ground on Friday as risk aversion peeped back in the financial markets on renewed threats from North Korea. There were no major reports out of Australia, New Zealand and Canada today so comdolls could be off to a slow start or sensitive to market sentiment ahead of top-tier events later on.

EURGBP Forex Technical Analysis – Sept 18, 2017

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EURGBP sold off sharply from its previous rally to the .9300 region, pulling back to an area of interest around the .8700 to .8800 levels. This lines up with the 50% to 61.8% Fibs, which could hold as potential support. Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions to show that sellers need to take a break, but the oscillator has to pull higher to signal that buyers are getting back in.
The 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA on the daily time frame so the path of least resistance is still to the upside. Price is also trading around the 100 SMA dynamic support but a larger pullback to the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point closer to the lowest Fib is possible.
The pound got a strong boost from better than expected UK CPI, which then fueled hawkish expectations for the BOE decision. The central bank acknowledged that the economy has been improving and signaled a potential tightening move down the line, with MPC member Vlieghe reiterating those upbeat points on Friday.
Meanwhile, the euro was also previously supported by ECB tapering expectations but has been vulnerable to a selloff with some officials expressing concern about currency appreciation. Also, the region’s trade balance turned out weaker than expected on Friday at a surplus of 18.6 billion EUR versus the earlier 21.7 billion EUR and the estimated 20.1 billion EUR figure.
Euro zone final CPI readings are due today, along with the Italian trade balance. As for the UK, the freshly released Rightmove HPI showed a 1.2% decline in house prices, following the earlier 0.9% drop. UK retail sales is due later in the week and analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% uptick.