Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Jan 19, 2018

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USD
The dollar lost ground to its peers once more as the threat of a government shutdown weighed on investor sentiment. Data also turned out mostly weaker than expected, with housing starts posing a huge drop from 1.30M to 1.19M as the weather-related demand was not sustained. Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment data and inflation expectations are due next, but the focus could be on the funding bill.
EUR
The euro gave up ground once more when the likelihood of a German coalition dropped. There were also no major reports out of the region and today only has the current account balance on tap, which suggests that political updates could determine the shared currency’s direction. Failure by Merkel to strike a coalition could be bearish for the euro.
GBP
The pound held its ground against most of its counterparts despite the lack of top-tier data from the UK. Today has the retail sales report due and a 0.8% decline is eyed, erasing part of the earlier 1.1% increase. Stronger than expected data, however, could prove bullish for the pound.
CHF
The franc was the main beneficiary of risk-off action and dollar weakness, as well as the selloff in the euro. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, so sentiment could continue to push franc pairs around.
JPY
The yen also took advantage of dollar weakness but was slightly weaker to the commodity currencies. Japan’s industrial production reading was revised down from 0.6% to 0.5% and there are no reports due today, leaving sentiment and bond yields as potential drivers for yen price action.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie drew some support from better then expected jobs data but gave up some of its gains when China’s data failed to impress. Most of the readings came in line with estimates, as fixed asset investment was unchanged at 7.2% instead of falling to 7.1% while industrial production ticked slightly higher. Canadian manufacturing sales is lined up next.

GBPAUD Forex Technical Analysis – Jan 19, 2018

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GBPAUD has been trending inside a long-term ascending channel visible on its daily time frame and is testing support at the mid-channel area of interest. This lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level which already seems to be holding as support.
The 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the rally is likely to resume. These moving averages are also around the 50% Fib level.
Stochastic is on the move up to show that buyers are in control, but the oscillator is nearing overbought conditions. Turning lower could draw sellers back in and lead to a drop to the channel support closer to the 61.8% Fib at 1.6400.
Economic data from Australia turned out stronger than expected this week as the jobs report showed a 34.7K gain versus the estimated 13.2K increase for December while the previous month’s figure enjoyed an upgrade.
Data from China came in mostly in line with expectations. Fixed asset investment was unchanged at 7.2% instead of falling to 7.1% while industrial production ticked slightly higher.
The focus could shift back to the pound today as the UK will release its retail sales report. A drop of 0.8% is eyed, erasing part of the 1.1% gain in the earlier period, but the pickup in holiday spending could still lead to an upside surprise.

Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Jan 18, 2018

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USD
The US dollar was in a weak spot for the most part of the day but staged a late rally when Fed officials started sounding more upbeat and hawkish. The Fed Beige Book also indicated modest to moderate growth in 11 out of 12 Fed districts, with strong price pressures from most. FOMC member Mester expects more contribution from tax reform to growth while Fed official Evans shifted to a more optimistic tone. Building permits and housing starts are due next, along with the Philly Fed index.
EUR
The euro was weighed down by comments on how the currency’s appreciation could dampen inflation and tightening odds. Final CPI readings were unchanged at 1.4% for the headline reading and 0.9% for the core figure. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today so ECB commentary could continue to influence the shared currency’s direction.
GBP
The pound took advantage of euro weakness and was able to recover slightly against the commodity currencies despite the lack of top-tier data from the UK. Today has another empty economic calendar so market sentiment could push pound pairs around.
CHF
The franc had a mixed run but was mostly weaker to the higher-yielding currencies as risk-taking came into play. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, so sentiment and currency-specific action could drive the franc.
JPY
The yen took advantage of dollar weakness but gave up some of its gains later on. There were no reports out of Japan then while today has the revised industrial production numbers due, although analysts don’t expect a change from the earlier 0.6% estimate. As with the franc, sentiment could be the main driver, along with dollar direction.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie had a volatile run ahead of the BOC statement but eventually held its ground as Poloz and Wilkins reiterated their optimistic views. The central bank hiked by 0.25% but expressed concerns about NAFTA. Australia’s employment change figure printed a 34.7K gain versus the estimated 13.2K increase. The previous reading enjoyed an upgrade from 61.6K to 63.6K. China has a bunch of major reports namely GDP, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment due.

GBPAUD Forex Technical Analysis – Jan 18, 2018

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GBPAUD recently fell through the rising trend line on its 4-hour time frame, indicating that a reversal is in order. Price is showing a pullback now, and applying the Fib tool shows that the 61.8% retracement level lines up with the broken support zone.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. Stochastic is still pointing up to signal that buyers are in control but reaching overbought levels could draw more sellers in.
Economic data from Australia turned out stronger than expected, as the employment change figure printed a 34.7K gain versus the estimated 13.2K increase. The previous reading enjoyed an upgrade from 61.6K to 63.6K.
However, the unemployment rate increased from 5.4% to 5.5% instead of holding steady. As it turned out, the participation rate rose a couple of notches from 65.5% to 65.7%.
Meanwhile, the pound is still weighed down by Brexit concerns and to some extent, the Carillion collapse. There are no major reports due from the UK today. China has a number of top-tier reports due, though, and this could influence Aussie action still.
GDP, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment are expected to tick lower and might reflect weaker global demand for commodities. Stronger than expected results, on the other hand, could be bullish for the Aussie.

Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Jan 17, 2018

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forex screen
USD
The US dollar continued to tumble across the board on concerns about a potential government shutdown and weaker performance in energy stocks. The Empire State manufacturing index fell from 18.0 to 17.7 instead of improving to 18.5. Today has the industrial production and capacity utilization rates due. FOMC member Mester also has a speech lined up after the release of the Fed Beige Book.
EUR
The euro got hit by reports that German coalition talks once again failed but was able to regain ground when ECB members gave a few more hawkish remarks. The shared currency even shrugged off warnings that currency appreciation could dampen inflation. Final CPI readings are due next.
GBP
The pound was dragged slightly lower by downbeat CPI readings as the headline figure slumped from 3.1% to 3.0% as expected while the core CPI fell below expectations to 2.5%. RPI and HPI both beat expectations, though. There are no major reports due from the UK today but MPC member Saunders has a testimony lined up.
CHF
The franc was one of the top performers of the day as dollar weakness and a bit of risk-off vibes in the earlier sessions spurred demand. SNB head Jordan refrained from jawboning the currency in his latest speech as well.
JPY
The yen also took a lot of risk-off flows form the dollar despite weaker than expected PPI data. Core machinery orders, on the other hand, beat expectations with a 5.7% jump instead of the estimated 1.3% slide. There are no other reports due from Japan so market sentiment could push yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie was one of the weakest currencies as crude oil slumped from its record highs while traders took some long positions off ahead of the BOC decision. A 0.25% rate hike is eyed but policymakers could stress that they would be cautious about future tightening. In New Zealand, the dairy auction yielded a 4.9% gain in prices while Australia reported a 1.8% gain in its Westpac consumer sentiment index.

NZDUSD Forex Technical Analysis – Jan 17, 2018

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NZDUSD is trending higher on an ascending channel visible on its 1-hour and 4-hour chart. Price is currently testing support and might be due for a move back to the resistance soon.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. This signals that the uptrend is more likely to resume than to reverse. Also, the short-term moving average lines up with the channel support to add to its strength as a floor.
Stochastic seems to have pulled up from the oversold region to indicate that buyers would take over. However, the oscillator has yet to make headway north to show a pickup in buying pressure.
The Kiwi has been able to take advantage of dollar weakness for the most part of the week as risk-taking is present and demand from China could be sustained. However, economic data from New Zealand came in weaker than expected today as ANZ reported a 2.2% drop in commodity prices after the earlier 0.9% dip.
In the US, the Empire State manufacturing index slipped from 18.0 to 17.7 instead of rising to the consensus at 18.5. Today has the industrial production and capacity utilization rates due. FOMC member Mester also has a speech lined up after the release of the Fed Beige Book.

Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Jan 16, 2018

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USD
The dollar was down in the dumps as banks were closed on a holiday and the usual stock market rallies weren’t there to buoy the currency higher. Only the Empire State manufacturing index is due today and a gain from 18.0 to 18.5 is expected. Stronger than expected results, combined with positive earnings data, could lead to a pickup for the dollar.
EUR
The euro was one of the top performers in recent sessions thanks to hawkish commentary from ECB official Hansson. He hinted that the central bank could end bond purchases in September and that currency appreciation won’t hurt their inflation outlook. The region’s trade balance also came in better than expected while medium-tier reports like German final CPI and Italian trade balance are lined up today.
GBP
The pound also scored decent gains and shrugged off dovish remarks from a BOE official, as well as the collapse of Carillion. There were no major reports out of the UK then while today has inflation numbers due. Headline CPI could dip from 3.1% to 3.0% while the core reading could fall from 2.6% to 2.7%, probably weighing on tightening hopes.
CHF
The franc was also one of the stronger currencies as it trailed the euro and took advantage of dollar weakness. There were no major reports out of Switzerland then while today has a speech by SNB head Jordan. Any hint of potential intervention could keep a lid on franc gains.
JPY
The yen was able to advance against the dollar but gave up ground to most of its peers. BOJ Governor Kuroda reiterated their pledge to conduct easing but bulls seem unconvinced since the central bank reduced its JGB purchases recently. Tertiary industry activity data is due next, then core machinery orders data is due tomorrow.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie also strengthened against most of its peers as some traders held out hopes for a BOC hike this week. Crude oil also kept advancing despite rising US output expectations. In Australia, new motor vehicle sales picked up by 4.5%. New Zealand has its GDT auction coming up.

USDJPY Forex Technical Analysis – Jan 16, 2018

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USDJPY recently fell through support at the 112.00 major psychological level and looks ready for a pullback to this area of interest. Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 61.8% level is close to this broken support, which might now hold as resistance.
Stochastic is pulling up from the oversold region to indicate a return in buying pressure. However, a shallow pullback to the 38.2% Fib might be enough to let the selloff resume.
The 100 SMA is crossing below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. This means that the downtrend is more likely to continue than to reverse.
The dollar has been on very weak footing despite a few upside data surprises. Banks were closed on a holiday yesterday, so the usual stock market rallies weren’t there to buoy the currency higher.
Only the Empire State manufacturing index is due today and a gain from 18.0 to 18.5 is expected. Stronger than expected results, combined with positive earnings data, could lead to a pickup for the dollar.
Still, it’s worth noting that the BOJ recently made some adjustments to its bond purchases, leading traders to speculate that tapering is in order. For now, doubts about the Fed’s pace of tightening remain owing to a weaker inflation outlook

Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Jan 12, 2018

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Canadian flag in front of the beautiful city of Vancouver, Canada.
USD
The US dollar was dragged lower by downbeat PPI data, as both headline and core readings posted 0.1% declines instead of the estimated 0.2% gains. This could mean a weaker CPI for the same month, which would reinforce lower inflation expectations and rate hike odds. Headline CPI could show a 0.1% uptick while the core reading could be up by 0.2%. Retail sales data is also due today and stronger spending figures are eyed.
EUR
The euro got a strong boost from the ECB minutes as policymakers dropped more tightening hints. In particular, the minutes suggested a change in forward guidance shared by members of the committee and a shift in their inflation outlook on expectations that price pressures would eventually take hold. Italian retail sales and euro zone industrial production also beat expectations. French final CPI and Italian industrial production numbers are due next.
GBP
The pound had a mixed round as it advanced to the dollar but slid to the euro and consolidated against most of its peers. There were no major reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has none on tap as well.
CHF
The franc trailed the euro after the release of the ECB minutes as the odds of tightening in the region meant less need for the SNB to keep the franc weak. Also, a higher EUR/CHF exchange rate would likely be positive for trade and inflation in Switzerland. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today.
JPY
The yen gave up ground on risk-taking but managed to outpace the dollar. Japan’s leading indicators ticked up from 106.5% to 108.6% but the current account surplus fell short of estimates. The Economy Watchers Sentiment index is due next and an uptick from 55.1 to 55.2 is expected.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Kiwi was one of the bigger winners of the day as risk-taking kicked in. The Aussie lagged behind as weaker gold prices came into play while the Loonie failed to follow the oil price rallies on NAFTA concerns. China’s trade balance turned out stronger than expected, lifting the Aussie and Kiwi on stronger demand expectations.

USDCAD Forex Technical Analysis – Jan 12, 2018

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USDCAD recently broke through the floor around the 1.2650 minor psychological mark then fell to a low of 1.2362. Price is showing signs of a pullback from its drop and sellers may be waiting at the nearby resistance levels.
Applying the Fib tool on its latest swing high and low shows that the 50% to 61.8% levels are close to the broken support, which might now hold as resistance. The 100 SMA is also around this area and is below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
Stochastic is already turning lower to indicate a pickup in selling pressure. This suggests that the current barrier around the 38.2% Fib might be enough to keep gains in check and push the pair back to the swing low or lower.
US PPI turned out weaker than expected and weighed heavily on the dollar as this spurred downbeat expectations for CPI. Recall that policymakers have been stressing the weaker inflation outlook as a potential reason to slow their pace of tightening.
US retail sales are also due later today and the headline figure could show a 0.5% uptick. The core version of the report is expected to show a 0.3% gain but there could be a chance for an upside surprise as holiday sales have been strong.
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar drew some support from rising crude oil prices on the heels of lower US stockpiles and production. Upbeat data from China has also supported demand expectations, which is also positive for the commodity and risk-taking.

trade.io Introduces Revolutionary Blockchain Based Trade Verification Dapp

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trade.io

Wednesday 10th January 2018, Zug Switzerland – Fresh off a highly successful ICO in which it raised over $31 million from 15,000 participants, trade.io has announced the release date for a semi-decentralized application to verify trade data on the blockchain.  In simple terms, trade.io has developed a method for clients to ensure the data being displayed by their broker has not been tampered with and is 100% “raw data”.

The application, called “BTV” or Blockchain Trade Verification, will be displayed via a proprietary dashboard, and can be offered by any broker, using data from any trading platform from any asset class.  BTV utilizes IPFS & the Ethereum blockchain based smart contracts to validate the data.  This will allow any broker offering FX, Crypto, CFDs or equities the ability to provide its clients the ultimate in transparency.

CEO, Jim Preissler commented on the release of BTV, “It’s a testament to the hard work that our blockchain development team and data architects have put in over the past 6 months to make BTV a reality.  We’re pleased to be the first to market with such a solution that demonstrates the power of the blockchain across all asset classes.  We feel BTV provides the trader the visibility needed to ensure their trades are being executed at fair prices and not being unfairly slipped, and provides the broker with a value add to its clients.”

BTV is scheduled to be released Tuesday, January 29th, and will start being adopted initially by Primus Global Ltd (previously known as FX Primus Europe (CY) Ltd), a CySEC regulated broker in Cyprus, along with Primus Capital Markets UK Ltd. (PCM), an FCA regulated broker in the UK.  In the future, trade.io will be issuing licenses to additional brokers who are interested in offering BTV to its clients.  Images from BTV can be seen on trade.io’s website using the following URL: https://trade.io/btv

trade.io’s Trade Token or (TIO) begins trading on OKEx on January 11th.

 

About trade.io

trade.io democratizes the financial markets and saves money for investors and companies through reducing and eliminating fees and inefficiencies by utilizing its innovative Blockchain trading platform. Disrupting a whole ecosystem of banks, advisors, markets, and record keepers which are extracting fees and can be disintermediated and commoditized by more efficient peer-to-peer Blockchain platforms. The trade.io exchange not only supports trading of assets, but supports a more efficient listing of assets in the crypto economy under the indelible and trusted history that Blockchain provides. The company couples these operational assets with investment banking experience, senior advisory expertise, as well as operating their system in a regulated and compliant environment.

Find out more by visiting https://trade.io/btv

 

COINTED: PAYCO THE FUTURE OF PAYMENTS

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COINTED

Making digital currency part of everyday lives is any crypto enthusiast’s dream. However, implementing cryptocurrency into the current payment systems is often turns infeasible or too costly. PayCo is a payment solution interface that allows clients to pay with crypto and the merchant to receive the payment in fiat.

The problem

Although some vendors and merchants are including crypto in their payment options, there are two major problems slowing down the process. One of them is the volatile value of cryptos. This makes them quite inconvenient as a medium of exchange. The second issue is that among thousands of cryptocurrencies, most stores accept only bitcoin. This is quite limiting as many people hold other kinds of digital currency.

First up: volatility

The fluctuating value of digital currencies, as stated in the latest Bitcoin News, is very attractive for anyone interested in investing. However, when there are costs to cover and budgets to meet, volatility becomes a big risk.

If a merchant accepts payments in crypto, they run the risk that if the value of the digital currency suddenly falls they would not be able to pay bills, suppliers and employees since these expenses are in fiat currencies.

Second: bitcoin is not enough

Most retailers that do go through the hassle to implement crypto in their systems include bitcoin but rarely any other currency. And with more than 1300 different cryptocurrencies, accepting only bitcoin is like opening a fruit store and selling only apples.

The solution

“With PayCo customers will be able to pay with bitcoins at the shop or online and the entrepreneur will get money on his bank account if he wants it. It is cheaper and safer than the common credit card payment” -Cointed’s CEO Christopher Rieder

With PayCo integrating bitcoin into existing cash register systems and online shops is cheap and easy.

Merchants have two options

The first one is for clients who have no payment processing system in place. This option includes a mobile hardware solution together with the interface.

If the client already has a processing system, they need only the interface. With the help of API, the PayCo interface is easily integrated. The product works with cash registers, as well as vending machines and smartphone apps.

Lower risk and more currencies

The biggest advantage of this interface: it allows the client to be charged in crypto and the merchant to get paid in fiat currency. This way, merchants do not need to worry about the value of bitcoin plummeting. In turn, this stability makes merchants more willing to accept multiple kinds of digital currencies not only bitcoin.

And, what about the other cryptocurrencies out there? Cointed are setting up a voting platform where contributors in the ICO campaign can make proposals and vote on them. So, if you want a some digital currency implemented in PayCo make sure to contribute!

To wrap it up

Cointed know how frustrating it can be to order a $2 coffee and pay $5 for it because of the high transaction fees. Or how risky it can be to accept payments in crypto and then see your profits disappearing because of a change in value.

This is why PayCo was designed with the needs of both parties in mind. To ensure lower risk for merchants and maintain the ease of use for buyers, creating a seamless shopping experience.

With PayCo buying a TV set with bitcoin is cheaper and easier than ever!