Bitcoin and Litecoin Awaiting Congestion Pattern Breakouts

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Bitcoin and Litecoin Awaiting Congestion Pattern Breakouts

Bitcoin and Litecoin have stabilized in price in the past couple of months, stalling after a year of declining price action. Both virtual currencies have seen some choppiness in October and November, and as we begin December, both are in congestion patterns. Let’s take a look at their charts.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 4H Chart 12/3
bitcoin 4h chart 12/3
(click to enlarge)

Bitcoin is seen in the 4H chart trading in a triangle. The fact that the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs are wavering sideways within this triangle confirms the lack of direction. The RSI also does not show any directional momentum.

Price action has been very quiet this week as price held between 367.30 and 382.50. Now, a break above 385 would clear the triangle resistance and a resistance pivot from last week. This should open up the 400-406 resistance, then the November high near 455. A break below 354 likely opens up the 340 triangle low, with the 285 October low to the 300 handle in sight as well.

Litecoin (LTCUSD) 4H Chart 12/3
litecoin 4h chart 12/3
(click to enlarge)

The 4H litecoin chart also shows a congestion/triangle pattern. However, there is more bearish bias here as price has been holding below the SMAs for the most part and the RSI has held below 60 since tagging 30, showing maintenance of the bearish momentum since late mid to late November.

We should approach this tight congestion by waiting for a breakout. If price can push above 3.68, it will break above the triangle high, and above the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs. This opens up the 3.95-4.00 resistance, then the 4.17 November-high.

Without a break above 3.68, litecoin would remain pressured to the downside, especially if the 4H RSI continues to hold below 60, forgiving some intra-session violation given that it falls back below 60. The bearish outlook has the 3.40 low in sight, with risk of falling to the August-low of 3.33.

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Fan Yang has been a professional forex trader and analyst since 2007. He specializes in technical analysis and has a Chartered Market Technician designation since 2011. He was the chief technical strategist at CMSFX He was also the founder and chief currency strategist at FXTimes Over the years, Fan has not only been a trader and analyst but also an educator. As a proponent of both technical and fundamental analysis in trading, Fan advocates simplicity and discipline as key factors in making trading decisions when faced with so many "clues" and "signals". Currently Fan Yang is the chief currency analyst and webinar instructor at forexminute.com.