Losing Bullish Bias after a Breakout:
Bitcoin went into the weekend with a bullish breakout. This breakout is being tested so far this week as price retreated from the 243 level. In the 4H chart, we are seeing some relatively sharper bearish candles vs. bullish ones. Price also failed to hold above the 100-, and 50-period SMAs, which reflects a lack of strong bullish.
Hanging on to the Upside:
Now, price is still holding above the 200-period SMA and the RSI is still holding above 40, so there is still a slight bullish bias and momentum, that is if price can hold above 235. This scenario would reflect a failure of bitcoin to come back to a triangle support. That would make the triangle resistance vulnerable if bitcoin approaches it, and would suggest a break above.
Otherwise, below 235, bitcoin would remain in consolidation mode within a triangle seen in the 4H chart. When can also see a triangle in the daily chart.
Medium-term Bearish Bias: A break below 235 would carry an implication in the very short-term in the 4H chart, but would maintain a bearish bias in the medium-term as well.
In the daily chart, price is trying to hold under the 200-, 100-, and 50-day SMAs while the RSI has held under 60. These are signs that this is still a bear’s market despite price action being relatively flat throughout the year.
Downside Risk: A break below 235 would put pressure on the 4H and daily triangle support. A break below 225 would likely clear these support factors. Then if price can hold below 237-238 in a subsequent pullback, the bearish continuation scenario would be in play with the 200 psychological level in sight.
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