Australian Jobs Data; Aussie Reaction

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Australian Jobs Data; Aussie Reaction

Today, we got employment data from Australia, which showed 15.6K jobs added in February. This was essentially in-line with forecasts which called for a reading around 15.3K. It was a rebound from January’s -14.6K print, which was a downward revision from the original -12.2K reading.
aus jobs feb. 2015
(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)

The 15.6K reading shouldn’t be anything to write home about but we also saw a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.3% from 6.4%.

All-in-all, the report was slightly better than expected, but we should be cautious about depending on it too much for a bullish AUD-outlook.

The AUD/USD pulled back, but this is really a USD-paring, and not so much about AUD-strength. Now, it recently broken into new lows on the year when dropping below the 0.7643 low. It is now pulling back into the previous consolidation area, which has a central pivot around 0.7740-50, especially if the 4H RSI approaches 60 and stalls there.

AUD/USD 4H Chart 3/12
audusd 4h chart 3/12
(click to enlarge)

Look for resistance there because the prevailing trend is still bearish, and there has not been any significant fundamental shift. Now, a break above 0.78 would break above the falling speedline and a cluster of moving averages, which would bring up another bullish correction scenario in the medium-term.

From the AUD/NZD we can see that the AUD-reaction was not bullish at all. It was actually bearish, but this was less a story of AUD-weakness, and more a story NZD-strength.

AUD/NZD 4H Chart 3/12
audnzd 3/12
(click to enlarge)

The RBNZ held its official cash rate at 3.50%, and delivered a neutral statement. Central bank watchers have started to expect more dovish tone that would lead to a rate cut, but bank governor Graeme Wheeler was very neutral in his statement.

The AUD/NZD has been bearish, and looks like it either made a clear-out correction, or is actually still trying to form a price bottom. The prevailing trend is bearish, so the bearish continuation is favored. If there is a pullback in AUD/NZD,look for sellers when it gets in to the 1.0425-1.0450 area.

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