AUD/USD to Resume Impulse Wave? – June 30, 2014

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AUD/USD to Resume Impulse Wave? - June 30, 2014

AUD/USD to Resume Impulse Wave? - June 30, 2014

AUD/USD has been in a steady uptrend, with price moving inside an ascending trend channel on its 1-hour forex time frame. Price has recently come off a test of the channel support and may be ready to resume its climb back to resistance.

However, the break below the recent consolidation could be a sign that another test of the channel support is in the cards. This could take place around the .9375 support area, but a break below this zone could suggest that the AUD/USD rally is over and that a selloff is in the cards.

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AUD/USD Forex Prediction

When buying pressure returns, AUD/USD could still have a chance at moving to the top of the channel at the .9500 major psychological resistance level. Of course this mostly depends on the outcome of Australian economic events this week. Earlier today, Australia already reported a 4.3% decline in HIA new home sales and an improvement from 3.0% to 3.1% in its MI inflation expectations report.

For tomorrow, the RBA is set to make its interest rate statement and is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 2.50%. After all, Governor Stevens already said that they plan to keep a period of stability in interest rates. In their previous statement, Stevens already said that signs of improvement were already seen in housing and employment, but that there are potential threats to growth with the rise in commodity prices and government spending cuts.

Since then, China has shown signs of a strong rebound in its manufacturing sector and this fact may be highlighted by policymakers in the press statement. If so, AUD/USD could be in for some gains on hawkish remarks.

Also lined up for this week are Australia’s retail sales and trade balance releases. Stronger than expected data could also lend support for this pair to resume its impulse wave.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.