AUDUSD Forex Forecast – Long-Term Uptrend Correction

160512_audusdAUDUSD recently broke above a double bottom neckline, signaling that a long-term uptrend might take place. Price reached a high of .7830 before showing signs of a correction. Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing high and low on the daily time frame shows that the 50% level coincides with the broken neckline and the .7350 minor psychological level.
The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. In addition, the 100 SMA lines up with the area of interest, adding to its strength as a support area. The 200 SMA is closer to the 61.8% Fib, which could be the line in the sand for a larger retracement.
Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions and is turning higher, suggesting a return in bullish momentum. Similarly RSI made it out of the oversold region so buyers could regain control and push the pair up to the swing high at .7830 or higher.
Earlier in the week, the Aussie lost ground on downbeat Chinese imports data, which suggested weaker demand for raw material and commodity products. Prior to this, the RBA cut interest rates by 0.25% in a surprise decision, citing a weaker inflation outlook as their main reason for easing.
However, data from Australia has managed to show some signs of resilience, as retail sales and trade balance beat expectations. The Westpac consumer confidence index also printed a climb of 8.5% from the previous 4.0% drop. In the next weekend, Chinese industrial production and retail sales figures are up for release, likely providing more clues on local demand.
Gold prices have been rallying lately, adding to potential support for the Aussie. Meanwhile, US retail sales and PPI are up for release from the US on Friday and downbeat results could spur more losses for the Greenback.

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.