AUD/NZD Stalling at a Falling Trendline

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AUD/NZD Stalling at a Falling Trendline

AUD/NZD has been making fresh record lows and almost hit parity when it tagged 1.0020 as we can see in the 4H chart. Since then, we can see that the pair has been pulling back. It is now at a key level testing key resistance factors that should hold if the market is continue its downtrend at least since March’s high of 1.0530.

AUD/NZD 4H Chart 4/9
audnzd 4h chart 4/9
(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows the pullback stalling at a falling trendline that is coming down from the 1.0530 high. During the 4/7 and 4/8 session, the pair was ranging between 1.0220 and 1.0150. During the second half of end of the 4/8 session, the market failed to push above 1.0220 and cracked the 1.1050 low, but there were buyers there to send AUD/NZD back into the 2-session range.

Now, the medium-term is still bearish as price holds under 1.2020, even above 1.2020, we should limit the bullish outlook to at most the support/resistance area around 1.0350.  Instead, the focus should be on the bearish outlook. With the 1.0150 level cracked, look for traders during the 4/9 session to send AUD/NZD back to at least 1.01 if not straight down towards 1.0020 and towards 1.00. Now if there is a pullback and price holds under 1.0150 for the most part, the bearish outlook would be even stronger.

AUD/NZD 1H Chart (4/9)
audnzd 1h chart 4/9
(click to enlarge)

The 1H chart might give us a clue to whether the AUD/NZD wants more bullish correction in the short-term, or is ready for the bearish continuation push.

So far, the bulls are still in control of the near-term with price above the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour SMA, and the 1H RSI holding above 40 after tagging above 70.

Now, a break below 1.0115 would clear a previous resistance pivot area, and the cluster of moving averages. If the RSI also falls below 40, this would be a sign that the market is heading back towards the low on the year with risk of falling further.

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Fan Yang has been a professional forex trader and analyst since 2007. He specializes in technical analysis and has a Chartered Market Technician designation since 2011. He was the chief technical strategist at CMSFX He was also the founder and chief currency strategist at FXTimes Over the years, Fan has not only been a trader and analyst but also an educator. As a proponent of both technical and fundamental analysis in trading, Fan advocates simplicity and discipline as key factors in making trading decisions when faced with so many "clues" and "signals". Currently Fan Yang is the chief currency analyst and webinar instructor at forexminute.com.