AUDNZD Forex Forecast – Support Turned Resistance?

AUDNZD Forex Forecast - Support Turned Resistance?

AUDNZD Forex Forecast - Support Turned Resistance?

AUDNZD recently popped higher upon seeing upbeat jobs data from Australian and a weaker manufacturing index from New Zealand. The Australian economy added 26.1K jobs in March, higher than the estimated 18.6K increase and a rebound from the earlier 0.7K decline. This was enough to bring the unemployment down from 5.8% to 5.7%.

Meanwhile, New Zealand’s Business NZ manufacturing index was down from 55.9 to 54.7 in March, reflecting a weaker pace of growth in the industry. AUDNZD bounced off support at the 1.1050 minor psychological level and is currently testing the resistance at 1.1200.

This area lines up with a former support area, which might hold as resistance from here. If so, AUDNZD could head back to the bottom of its latest range. On the other hand, a break above the near-term resistance could lead to a climb to the next ceiling near 1.1350.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA for now, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside. However, the moving averages are edging closer together, suggesting that a downward crossover might take place. In that case, price could resume its drop and even attempt to break below the 1.1050 level.

Stochastic is on the move up, which means that buyers are still in control of price action. If this oscillator reaches the overbought area and turns lower, bearish pressure could keep the gains limited.

There are no other reports due from Australia or New Zealand for the rest of the day but China is set to print its latest batch of economic reports, namely the GDP, industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment numbers.


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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.