AUDNZD could be due for a break or a bounce, as price is hovering at the descending triangle support visible on the daily time frame. Technical indicators are giving mixed signals at the moment.
The 100 SMA just made a downward crossover from the 200 SMA, indicating that a breakdown might be possible. If so, the pair could fall by around 800 pips, which is roughly the same height as the triangle formation. RSI is on its way down, indicating that sellers are in control, but the oscillator is already near the oversold area.
Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions, which suggests that Aussie bears could take a break from here. If so, a bounce back to the top of the triangle at the 1.1000 major psychological level might take place.
The Australian dollar has been weakening as risk aversion is back in the financial markets and data has been unimpressive so far. However, traders might book profits off their recent short positions ahead of the return of Chinese traders from their Spring Festival holidays.
Meanwhile, the Kiwi has also weakened due to risk aversion but to lesser extent compared to the Aussie since the Australian economy is more exposed to China. There are no major reports lined up from both economies for the rest of the week, which means that the range-bound action could carry on.
In terms of central bank action, both the RBA and RBNZ are keeping the door open for additional easing measures or rate cuts but would continue to keep close tabs on global market developments for now.
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