AUDCAD is currently testing the bottom of the range visible on its 4-hour time frame and may be due for a bounce after the RBA decided to keep interest rates on hold. If so, the pair could make another test of the range resistance at the .9700 major psychological level.
Stochastic is pointing up, suggesting that further gains are possible. RSI is also on the move up, which means that buyers are in control of price action at the moment. However, the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA, which means that downside pressure is still present.
A break below the range support could lead to around 300 pips in losses, which is roughly the same height as the rectangle formation.
AUDCAD Fundamental Factors
Yesterday, Canada printed a weaker than expected Ivey PMI reading, as it indicated a slower pace of expansion in the manufacturing industry. Oil prices have been on a decline recently, thanks to Iran’s pledge to double its oil production once the EU sanctions are lifted.
For today, Canada is set to print its trade balance and possibly show a smaller deficit of 2.6 billion CAD from the previous 3.0 billion CAD. Weaker than expected data from Canada could lead to a strong bounce for this pair, especially since the RBA refrained from cutting interest rates in their latest policy statement.
Chinese stocks have been tumbling again in today’s Asian session, signaling that the government’s stimulus efforts have failed to bear fruit. This follow’s the central bank’s easing measures, which also did very little to stem the decline in Chinese equities. This could lead to lower consumer and business confidence in the country, which might then weigh on domestic growth and demand for commodities.
Australian jobs data are still up for release later on this week and a small decline in hiring is expected. Along with that, the Chinese CPI figures are up for release on Thursday.
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