AUDCAD recently broke below support around the .9750 level then reached a low of .9620 before showing signs of a pullback. Using the Fibonacci retracement tool on the swing high and low on the 1-hour chart shows that the 38.2% level lines up with the broken support area.
In addition, the 100 SMA lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, adding to its strength as a potential resistance level. Meanwhile the 200 SMA lines up with the 50% Fib, which might also hold as a ceiling. The line in the sand for any pullback is the 61.8% Fib at .9835.
Stochastic is moving up so buyers are still in control. RSI is also heading north so price might follow suit until it reaches the overbought region. From there, sellers could take over and push AUDCAD back to the previous lows or lower.
Data from China came in weaker than expected today, as the official manufacturing PMI fell from 49.4 to 49.0 instead of holding stead while the non-manufacturing PMI dropped from 53.5 to 52.7. The Caixin version of the report showed a drop from 48.4 to 48.0.
Even so, the RBA decided to keep rates on hold, citing that they’re seeing reasonable prospects for continued growth in the domestic economy. Even though they pointed out that there’s scope for further easing, they also noted that inflation could pick up soon.
As for the Loonie, the Canadian monthly GDP report is due today and a weak reading might mean more losses for the currency. So far, hopes of an oil production cap is keeping the oil-related currency afloat but the lack of an accord could spur declines.
Australia’s GDP, retail sales, and trade balance are up for release throughout the week, providing more volatility for this pair.
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