AMZN shares could be due for a bounce sooner or later as price is sitting at the floor on the $290/share level. Bear in mind though that the selloff has lasted for the start of this year as risk aversion has weighed on US equities.
The downturn in risk-taking has been spurred by speculations of Fed tightening, as strong US economic figures led some traders to price in a rate hike for the first half of the year. However, recent reports indicate that the US economy is not doing as well as the surface-level figures suggest.
AMZN Shares Forecast
The December NFP reading printed a better than expected headline figure but also indicated negative wage growth and a lower participation rate. Meanwhile, the retail sales report showed sharp declines, suggesting that consumers are keeping their hands in their pockets instead of spending.
With that, the path of least resistance for AMZN shares is to the downside unless signs of a stronger pickup in the US economy are seen. A break below the $290/share level could mean more losses for the stock, possibly until the $250/share level in the coming months.
On the other hand, a bounce from the current levels could mean a move back to the nearby resistance at $310/share. MACD is almost in the oversold area and indicating that buying pressure is bound to return sooner or later. The 50 or 200 SMA might hold as resistance in the near-term, as these have served as dynamic inflection points.
Bear in mind that the shorter-term 50 SMA is moving below the longer-term 200 SMA for now, which means that the downtrend is intact. An upward crossover doesn’t seem likely to take place in the near future, although that would indicate a reversal for AMZN shares.
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