Currency forecast, August 9th 2013

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Currency forecast, August 9th 2013
Currency forecast, August 9th 2013

Currency forecast, August 9th 2013

Looks like we saw the last move higher in the EURUSD around the 1,3400 level to take out the last market stops. In my opinion it is time to be long on the USD (USDJPY, USDCHF, EURUSD) as the current levels do not implicit the economy data. Should we break the level of 1,3500 in the EURUSD, then I would close the whole USD-position, as we would be then in a trend. As long as we don’t see spot above that level, we are still in a bigger range.

I closed the gold position @ 1300,00 as I mentioned in the last forecast and took profit on it.

There is also a small story about Hungary and HUF. Hungary paid back the loan which they got from the IMF, which is good in that way that the IMF can’t offer any “advice” anymore to the Hungarian government. This should push the HUF a bit, though there is also the discussion about the new law in Hungary that no foreigner can buy agriculture land in Hungary. This law could be maybe against EU-laws and will lead to bigger discussions between the EU and Hungary in the next weeks.

The other stories to watch for now are still Italy, a possible slowdown of the growth in China and possible news out of the USA from the FED regarding its easing policy.

Within the next two weeks most traders should come back from vacation and this will lead to more market liquidity and we will see bigger market moves again too.

One more important thing to say is just:

Have a nice weekend!

**relatedarticle**

Good luck,   Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view.

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3380 , USDCHF 0,9260 , EURCHF 1,2285 , USDJPY 96,25 , EURJPY 128,60 , EURHUF 299,15 , USDCAD 1,0405 , GOLD 1.310,00

EURUSD

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 3 @ 1,3150 (1@ 1,3050 and 1 @ 1,3130 and 1 @ 1,3270) Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY

(Entry lvl):

Current position: long 2 @ 97,00

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Bought 2 @ 97,00

P/L (ytd): +1150 pips

EURJPY

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Bought 1 @ 128,90

P/L (ytd): +430 pips

USDCHF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Long 3 @ 0,9366

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +10 pips

EURHUF  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +240 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Bought 2k onces @ 1300,00

P/L (ytd): +118.000 USD